AARP Poll: Trump, Harris Locked in Tight Race Among Arizona Voters

Voters were also asked about Arizona’s U.S. Senate race and who should succeed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who’s not seeking a second term. Pollsters asked voters who would get their vote between front-runner candidates Kari Lake, a Republican and former gubernatorial candidate, and U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat. The poll shows Gallego leading by 7 percentage points among likely voters of all ages, with 51 percent supporting Gallego and 44 percent supporting Lake.

That’s a 3-percentage-point gain for Gallego and a 1-percentage-point loss for Lake compared to the AARP summer poll.

When it comes to 50-plus voters, both Lake and Gallego received support from 48 percent of likely voters. Among Hispanic voters 50-plus, support remains strong for Gallego: 61 percent of those polled support the Democrat compared with 35 percent for Lake. Support among both those groups remains mostly unchanged from the summer poll.

Some swing voters 50-plus plan to split their votes by voting for Trump, the Republican, for president and for Gallego, the Democrat, for U.S. Senate. In that group of older voters, Trump receives support from 45 percent compared to Harris with 36 percent, a 9-point lead. Meanwhile, 54 percent of older swing voters say they will support Gallego, compared with 24 percent for Lake, a 20-point lead.

“In a battleground state like this, I think that’s unusual,” Ward says.

AARP (Source: Getty images)

Interest in voting is high

The AARP poll shows a growing interest in voting in November, especially among older adults. Eighty-four percent of all likely Arizona voters and 92 percent of voters 50-plus say they are extremely motivated to vote. In the summer poll, 77 percent of all likely voters and 86 percent of voters 50-plus said they were extremely motivated to vote.

“Older voters are excited,” says AARP’s Kennedy, “and they are definitely going to turn out. There’s no doubt about that.” 

Fifty-eight percent of older voters say they plan to vote by absentee ballot or mail-in ballot, while 23 percent plan to vote at the polls on Election Day and 15 percent plan to vote early in person.

AARP (Source: Getty images)

Older voters will decide the outcome of the races, says Ward. “They already are going to be the majority of the voters who show up, and then, number two, they’re more motivated to vote.”

Older voters in Arizona are worried about the future of the country. Thirty-four percent of voters 50-plus say the country is moving in the right direction, while 62 percent are concerned the nation is headed the wrong way.

Finances play a role in that. Among older voters in Arizona, 61 percent are worried about their personal financial situation, and 57 percent of voters 50-plus say Social Security is or will become a major source of income for their household. The vast majority of older adults surveyed (92 percent) say they would be more likely to support a candidate who ensures older workers receive their Social Security benefits.

Social Security, Medicare among top concerns

From a list of issues important to older adults, voters 50-plus rank Social Security (79 percent), Medicare (74 percent) and policies to help older adults live independently at home as they age (68 percent) as extremely important when deciding on a candidate, the poll shows. Also among their top concerns are the cost of utilities (64 percent), the cost of housing (62 percent) and the cost of prescription drugs (61 percent).

On the issues most important in deciding their votes in this election, older adults list immigration and border security (40 percent), the economy and jobs (26 percent), inflation and rising prices (25 percent), threats to democracy (23 percent), and abortion and reproductive issues (22 percent) as top factors. 

AARP (Source: Getty images)

In fact, 57 percent of voters 50-plus pick an economic issue as one of their top concerns. “When you talk about inflation, jobs and Social Security among older voters, those three sort of personal economic issues really are at the top,” Ward says.

Twenty-five percent of older voters in Arizona report being a caregiver for an older or ill adult or someone with a disability. Thirty-four percent of caregivers 50-plus say they spend 21 or more hours a week providing care, while 15 percent spend 11 to 20 hours per week caregiving.

Voters 50-plus want to see more assistance for caregivers. Seventy-two percent say they would be more likely to back a candidate who advocates for family caregivers who help loved ones live independently in their own homes. Sixty-nine percent are more likely to support candidates who advocate for tax credits for unpaid family caregivers. Sixty-seven percent would be more likely to vote for candidates advocating for paid leave for caregivers.

“Caregivers are really feeling strapped right now,” says AARP’s Kennedy. “Policies that support them should be top of mind for those who are running for our top offices in the state of Arizona.”