In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

AARP Michigan has released its second 2024 statewide election survey, finding that candidates should pay close attention to Michiganders age 50 and older, who make up an outsized portion of the electorate. 

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

In the U.S. Senate race, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) holds a three-point lead over Mike Rogers (R) among voters overall, and a two-point lead among voters 50 and older.

In both races, gender plays a factor. Harris leads by 12 points among women 50 plus, while Trump is favored by older men by 17 points. Similarly, Slotkin holds a16-point lead among women 50 and older, while Rogers leads by 15 points among their male counterparts.

Candidates can earn the votes of the older electorate by paying attention to the issues that matter most to them. Immigration and border security, inflation and rising prices, and the economy and jobs are among the top-cited issues that older Michiganders will consider when deciding how to cast their votes.  Additionally, the vast majority of voters ages 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security, Medicare, helping people stay in their homes as they age, and the cost of utilities are either very or extremely important in helping them decide which candidates they will support. Furthermore, over eight in ten older Michigan voters prefer a candidate who wants Medicare to continue negotiating for lower prescription drug prices.

Ninety percent of voters age 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, more than any other age group. And 16 percent of older voters are swing voters, those who do not vote straight-ticket Republican or Democrat. Michiganders age 50 and older are the largest voting bloc in the state; they may determine the ultimate outcome of the election. Earning their votes will be the key to a winning campaign.

 Methodology

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters age 50 and older. The survey was conducted between October 2 and 8, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list. 

For more information, please contact Kate Bridges at kbridges@aarp.org. For media inquiries, contact External Relations at media@aarp.org.