AARP Poll: Harris, Trump Nearly Tied in Swing State of Nevada

When it comes to Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent U.S. Senator Jacky Rosen has a comfortable lead over GOP challenger Sam Brown according to the AARP poll. Forty-nine percent of Nevada voters support Rosen, while 44 percent back Brown, the poll found. However, voters 50-plus favor the Republican: 49 percent of older voters back Brown, compared to 44 percent who support Rosen.

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The races for Nevada’s four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, meanwhile, also reveal a closely divided electorate, with 47 percent of Nevadans saying they would cast a ballot for a Republican, and 46 percent saying they were voting for a Democrat. Following the trend in top-of-the-ballot races, half of voters 50-plus said they were voting for the GOP candidate for Congress, and 43 percent said they were backing the Democratic candidate.

Older voters are a powerful cohort

Voters 50-plus are an important audience for candidates: They made up 54 percent of the voting electorate in 2020, and 61 percent of the vote in 2022, according to exit polls.

They also turn out in large numbers. Eighty-nine percent of Nevada voters 50-plus say they are extremely motivated to vote this year compared to 83 percent of voters 18-plus, the AARP poll found. That’s an increase from the June AARP poll, when 85 percent of older voters and 73 percent of all voters said they were extremely motivated to vote.

When it comes to how they plan to vote, 43 percent of older voters say they will vote early in person, 32 percent say they’ll vote by mail ballot and 20 percent say they plan to vote in person on Election Day.

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“The closeness of the race shows just how important voters 50-plus will be to the outcome of the presidential race,” says Maria Moore, state director of AARP Nevada. “Candidates need to pay attention to the pocketbook issues older voters care about most, like preserving Social Security and keeping drug prices low.”

Voters 50-plus indicate they could be swayed if candidates support issues that impact their lives. Ninety-two percent of older Nevada voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who advocates to make sure workers get the Social Security they earned, and 73 percent say they’re more likely to support a candidate who works to protect the program from cuts.

From a list of issues important to older adults, Nevada voters 50-plus rank Social Security (80 percent), Medicare (73 percent), cost of utilities (72 percent), policies to help older adults live independently at home as they age (70 percent), cost of housing (69 percent) and cost of prescription drugs (65 percent) as extremely important when deciding their vote.

Pocketbook issues play a role

Financial issues are also top of mind for Nevada voters. Nearly two-thirds — 64 percent — of all voters in Nevada say they are worried about their own personal financial situations. Sixty-two percent of voters 50-plus say the same.

The economy “is the biggest issue among voters in play,” says Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward. Swing voters — meaning people who do not vote a straight party line — "are very economically focused," he adds.

On issues that would personally be most important to them when casting ballots, older voters list immigration and border security (38 percent), the economy and jobs (30 percent), inflation and rising prices (24 percent), threats to democracy (22 percent), and abortion and reproductive issues (18 percent) as among their top concerns.

AARP (Getty Images)

Caregiving is an issue that cuts across party lines. A quarter of Nevada voters, and 26 percent of those over 50, described themselves as family caregivers. They spend significant time caring for loved ones: 36 percent of all voters and 33 percent of voters 50-plus say they spend 21 hours or more per week doing unpaid care.

According to the AARP poll, older Nevada voters say they’re more likely to back a candidate who advocates for support for family caregivers (75 percent); for providing a tax credit for unpaid family caregivers (72 percent); and for providing leave so caregivers don’t lose their jobs or salaries (69 percent).

All of the issues important to voters 50-plus give contenders in both parties a chance to get crossover votes — perhaps enough to secure victory in a tight race, Liszt says.

“There is still room for candidates to move the vote in either direction by talking about the issues that matter to older voters,” Liszt says. “Swing voters 50-plus prioritize personal economic issues like the economy, inflation and Social Security.”