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AARP Poll: Harris, Trump Nearly Tied in Swing State of Nevada

Support for the Democratic nominee has grown since Biden exited the race

By

Susan Milligan,

 
AARP
Comments
Published October 22, 2024
AARP (Getty Images, 4)

In the close race for U.S. president, Republican Donald Trump holds a razor-thin lead over Democrat Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Nevada, according to an exclusive AARP poll released Tuesday.

Former president Trump has support from 47 percent of likely voters in the Silver State, compared to 46 percent for Vice President Kamala Harris. Voters 50 and older are fueling Trump’s small advantage, with 51 percent backing Trump and 44 percent lining up behind Harris.

Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee Aug. 5 after President Joe Biden announced he was exiting the race. Her entry has helped Democrats: Harris has seen a 9-percentage-point gain in support among all Nevada voters and a 6-percentage-point gain among voters 50-plus compared to Biden’s position in June, when AARP last surveyed Nevada voters. Trump has seen a 3-percentage-point increase among all voters and a 1-percentage-point gain among voters 50-plus during the same time period.

Pollsters interviewed 1,368 likely Nevada voters between Oct. 8 and Oct. 15. The bipartisan team of Democratic-leaning Impact Research and Republican firm Fabrizio Ward conducted the AARP-commissioned poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent for all likely voters and plus or minus 3.5 percent for voters 50-plus.

fifty one percent of voters over age fifty support trump, versus forty four supporting harris
AARP (Getty Images)

Harris has also improved her standing among Hispanic voters over Biden. Fifty-five percent of Latino voters 50-plus say they back Harris, an 8-percentage point increase from Biden’s level of support in June. Trump has backing from 40 percent of older Latino voters, an increase of two percentage points from June’s polling results.

Hispanic voters are a critical voting group in Nevada, making up a fifth of the overall electorate, and they could make the difference in the election, says Jeff Liszt, a partner with Impact Research. Hispanic voters tend to lean Democratic, he says, but candidates can reach them by addressing pocketbook issues.

“Hispanic voters are really focused on inflation and costs. There’s more concern about inflation among Hispanic voters 50-plus than white voters,” Liszt says.

With the presidential race expected to be close nationally and in the seven battleground states, the smallest margins could decide the presidency. Democratic president Joe Biden won Nevada’s six Electoral College votes in 2020 by 2.4 percentage points. This year’s election in Nevada is promising to be equally tight. While Nevada has the fewest electoral votes of any of the seven battleground states, “there is actually still a chance that Nevada will be the deciding state,” Liszt says. “Harris’ path to victory gets more complicated if she loses Nevada.” 

When it comes to Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent U.S. Senator Jacky Rosen has a comfortable lead over GOP challenger Sam Brown according to the AARP poll. Forty-nine percent of Nevada voters support Rosen, while 44 percent back Brown, the poll found. However, voters 50-plus favor the Republican: 49 percent of older voters back Brown, compared to 44 percent who support Rosen.

nevada voters over fifty support brown over rosen for senate
AARP (Getty Images)

The races for Nevada’s four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, meanwhile, also reveal a closely divided electorate, with 47 percent of Nevadans saying they would cast a ballot for a Republican, and 46 percent saying they were voting for a Democrat. Following the trend in top-of-the-ballot races, half of voters 50-plus said they were voting for the GOP candidate for Congress, and 43 percent said they were backing the Democratic candidate.

Older voters are a powerful cohort

Voters 50-plus are an important audience for candidates: They made up 54 percent of the voting electorate in 2020, and 61 percent of the vote in 2022, according to exit polls.

They also turn out in large numbers. Eighty-nine percent of Nevada voters 50-plus say they are extremely motivated to vote this year compared to 83 percent of voters 18-plus, the AARP poll found. That’s an increase from the June AARP poll, when 85 percent of older voters and 73 percent of all voters said they were extremely motivated to vote.

When it comes to how they plan to vote, 43 percent of older voters say they will vote early in person, 32 percent say they’ll vote by mail ballot and 20 percent say they plan to vote in person on Election Day.

nevada voters are extremely motivated to vote
AARP (Getty Images)

“The closeness of the race shows just how important voters 50-plus will be to the outcome of the presidential race,” says Maria Moore, state director of AARP Nevada. “Candidates need to pay attention to the pocketbook issues older voters care about most, like preserving Social Security and keeping drug prices low.”

Voters 50-plus indicate they could be swayed if candidates support issues that impact their lives. Ninety-two percent of older Nevada voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who advocates to make sure workers get the Social Security they earned, and 73 percent say they’re more likely to support a candidate who works to protect the program from cuts.

From a list of issues important to older adults, Nevada voters 50-plus rank Social Security (80 percent), Medicare (73 percent), cost of utilities (72 percent), policies to help older adults live independently at home as they age (70 percent), cost of housing (69 percent) and cost of prescription drugs (65 percent) as extremely important when deciding their vote.

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Pocketbook issues play a role

Financial issues are also top of mind for Nevada voters. Nearly two-thirds — 64 percent — of all voters in Nevada say they are worried about their own personal financial situations. Sixty-two percent of voters 50-plus say the same.

The economy “is the biggest issue among voters in play,” says Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward. Swing voters — meaning people who do not vote a straight party line — "are very economically focused," he adds.

On issues that would personally be most important to them when casting ballots, older voters list immigration and border security (38 percent), the economy and jobs (30 percent), inflation and rising prices (24 percent), threats to democracy (22 percent), and abortion and reproductive issues (18 percent) as among their top concerns.

social security, utilities, medicare are big issues for voters
AARP (Getty Images)

Caregiving is an issue that cuts across party lines. A quarter of Nevada voters, and 26 percent of those over 50, described themselves as family caregivers. They spend significant time caring for loved ones: 36 percent of all voters and 33 percent of voters 50-plus say they spend 21 hours or more per week doing unpaid care.

According to the AARP poll, older Nevada voters say they’re more likely to back a candidate who advocates for support for family caregivers (75 percent); for providing a tax credit for unpaid family caregivers (72 percent); and for providing leave so caregivers don’t lose their jobs or salaries (69 percent).

All of the issues important to voters 50-plus give contenders in both parties a chance to get crossover votes — perhaps enough to secure victory in a tight race, Liszt says.

“There is still room for candidates to move the vote in either direction by talking about the issues that matter to older voters,” Liszt says. “Swing voters 50-plus prioritize personal economic issues like the economy, inflation and Social Security.”

Susan Milligan is a contributing writer who has covered domestic policy, elections and foreign affairs for 40 years. She is a former foreign correspondent and White House correspondent for the Boston Globe. Her work has appeared in numerous magazines and newspapers, including the NewYork Daily News, AARP Bulletin, US News & World Report and PRINT magazine.

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