Are We Seeing a Summer Wave With New COVID-19 Variants?

Temperatures are rising — and so are COVID cases in many areas of the country

Rachel Nania,

AARP

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En español

Published May 09, 2024

/ Updated August 07, 2024

a pair of binoculars zooming in on the new COVID variant FLiRT

AARP (Source: Shutterstock(2))

With warmer weather here and cold and flu season a few months away, COVID-19 may not be top of mind. But don’t let it slip too far, doctors and public health researchers warn.

Infections are increasing throughout the U.S., according to an Aug. 2 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with the number of COVID-19 cases growing or likely growing in 35 states and territories. Emergency department visits and hospitalizations are also elevated, particularly among adults 65 and older.

These trends aren’t too surprising. Unlike influenza, which William Schaffner, M.D., professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, says “virtually disappears” during the summer, COVID-19 keeps circulating. Federal data shows that historically, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations swell somewhat during the warmer months.

Here’s what you need to know about this summer’s surge.

FLiRT variants are driving summer cases

All about coronavirus

A new crop of coronavirus variants is behind the majority of the infections we’re seeing this summer. The strains KP.3, KP.3.1.1, KP.2 and KP.2.3 — collectively known as FLiRT variants — make up nearly 70 percent of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., CDC data shows as of Aug. 3. A close relative, LB.1, is behind 16 percent of infections.

No doubt we’ve seen some strange nicknames for variants throughout the COVID-19 pandemic — Arcturus, Pirola and Eris, to name a few. According to an explainer posted by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, FLiRT is an acronym for some of the variants’ spike protein mutations.

The FLiRT variants, which are in the omicron family, appear to be highly transmissible, meaning they spread easily. However so far, they do not appear to cause more severe disease, Schaffner says.

The “slight caution” about the FLiRT variants, Schaffner says, is that from a genetic perspective, they are a little more “distant from their parents.” That means immunity from previous infections and vaccines “may not protect perfectly” against an infection with a FLiRT variant, he notes.

The Infectious Diseases Society of America says vaccination remains effective in preventing a severe case of COVID-19, and vaccination with the most recently updated COVID-19 shot produces antibodies that can recognize JN.1, the parental strain of the FLiRT variants.

Officials at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration have recommended that vaccine manufacturers target the KP.2 FLiRT strain of the coronavirus when the COVID-19 vaccines are updated this fall. The CDC on June 27 said that when these updated vaccines become available, everyone 6 months and older should receive one to protect against severe illness. In 2023, more than 916,300 people in the U.S. were hospitalized for COVID-19 and more than 75,500 people died from it, the CDC said.

Advice for older adults

Even with cases increasing in many areas of the country, infectious disease researchers say it’s unlikely we’ll experience a surge this summer that’s as dramatic as the waves we saw in the early days of the pandemic.

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Still, virologist Andy Pekosz said in a recent interview with Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health that even small spikes can have a big impact on vulnerable populations, including older adults who are at greater risk for severe disease from COVID-19.

In light of the new variants and increasing cases, Schaffner says older adults and people with underlying medical conditions that put them at higher risk for severe disease if infected should get another dose of the COVID-19 vaccine if they have not done so already.

Health officials in February recommended that adults 65 and older who received the COVID-19 vaccine in the fall of 2023 roll up their sleeves again for the shot to strengthen their protection against the virus — and it’s not too late to get it. It will “give you the best protection until September or October, when we once again will update the COVID vaccine,” Schaffner says.

Another tip while cases climb: Consider wearing a mask when you’re in crowded indoor settings, the New York City Department of Health said on social media.

Many people think of summer as safer since more activities are outdoors. However, Schaffner points out, it’s also a big time for travel. Plus, summer’s smoldering temperatures can have the opposite effect and drive people indoors, particularly if there’s air-conditioning.

Finally, if you catch COVID-19, talk to your doctor about treatment options. There are prescription pills you can take to help keep symptoms from getting worse, and the sooner you start them, the better they work.

“It’s very important to recognize that although we would like to put COVID behind us, COVID is with us,” Schaffner says. “It’s now part of our ecology. It’s not going to just completely disappear.”

Editor’s note: This story, first published on May 9, 2024, has been updated.

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