MONEY SAVER
How to Predict the Future
Financial professionals typically use conventional data like inflation, interest rates and employment to make economic forecasts. Instead, you might consider these more obscure indicators
Hairstyles
“Many clients choose lower-maintenance color and/or haircuts when the economy is not doing well,” says Allison Oseni, who spent 20 years working as a hairstylist. “I definitely noticed the trend of longer spaces between appointments and skipping highlights or going darker during 2008, when the market crashed.”
Oseni’s stylist friends report that they’re seeing a small move toward some clients coming in less frequently and more clients opting for balayage, a hair-coloring technique that doesn’t require the frequent maintenance that other services need.
Cranes
An increase in construction cranes indicates a healthier construction economy, says Paul Brussow, an executive vice president at Rider Levett Bucknall, a construction and property consulting firm. The latest signs from the 14 North American cities the company tracks (including Boston, Denver and Seattle) are positive, Brussow says. The crane count is at an all-time high.
The Word ‘Recession’
When increasing numbers of people search online for the word “recession,” that tends to indicate a weakening economy, says A. Gary Shilling, president of an economic consultancy and investment advisory in Springfield, New Jersey. “If people are worried about a recession, their actions, such as spending less, can encourage a recession.”
As of April of this year, lookups of the word “recession” were low. Last June and July they spiked, but no recession followed.
Garbage
When people have more money, they buy more stuff and discard more stuff too. So trash volume tends to rise when the economy thrives and fall when it dips, says Casper Hill, city spokesperson for Minneapolis. “With inflation we’ve seen a larger decrease in waste and overall decreases in all material streams,” he says.
Cardboard Boxes
An increase in purchases means a healthier economy … and a greater need for the cardboard boxes used to ship those purchases. “Corrugated packaging is a leading indicator of the economy,” says Ryan Fox, corrugated market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. In April, according to Fox, the demand for boxes in the U.S. appeared much lower than it was in 2022—down at least 5.5 percent to 7.5 percent. That decrease could partly be explained by the bursting of the pandemic demand bubble, he says, but the reduction might also reflect economic weakening.