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If it’s pumpkin spice latte season in August, you know it’s Oscar prediction season in September! Why? The heavy-hitter film festivals that set the table for the rest of the year’s award-seeking movies are in our rear-view mirror (now that Denzel Washington, 66, has brought his Macbeth from Broadway to screen at the New York Film Festival). Which means it’s time to name names, get the office pools buzzing and get excited for catching these big films and performances as they hit theaters this fall. Here’s our early predictions on who’ll be nominated next February and take home the gold (statues) in March.
Best Actor: Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth
In the stark black-and-white adaptation from Joel Coen, 66, Washington portrays the tragic warrior with every wrinkle in his face, his iambic pentameter delivery a master class in speaking Shakespeare. This is the performance that will haunt high school English classes for the next decade — and could take the best actor crown, although a challenge from Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog (see below) may divide the vote.
The prediction: Will be nominated, should win
Handicapper’s notes: Washington won a best actor for Flight, and a best supporting actor for Malcolm X.
Check it out: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actor: Will Smith in King Richard
Will Smith, 53, knocked out festival audiences (and AARP critics) as Richard Williams, the father and coach of power tennis greats Serena and Venus Williams. Can he go match, set, game against Washington's Macbeth?
The prediction: Will be nominated, long odds to win
Handicapper’s notes: Twice nominated for best actor (Ali, The Pursuit of Happyness), he lost first to Washington in 2002, and then Forest Whitaker in 2007.
Check it out: King Richard
Best Actress: Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter
The prediction: The awards tornado Colman, 47, riding high on The Crown, will lead this year's British wave as the distraught empty nester on a solo holiday in Maggie Gyllenhaal's directorial debut adapted from the fierce novel of the same name by Elena Ferrante, 78 (My Brilliant Friend). But this is a rich field already, with Oscar powerhouse Frances McDormand in the awards house as Lady Macbeth, not to mention Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin and Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, so maybe hedge your bets on this category.
Handicapper's notes: Colman won best actress in 2019 for The Favourite and received a best actress nomination in 2021 for playing the daughter in The Father.
Check it out: The Lost Daughter
Best Actress: Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers
Maternal figures have long been an obsession for the vibrant Pedro Almodovar, 72, and star Penelope Cruz, 47, has played his mother in the past. Here, she’s the elder of two single moms who meet, and bond, on the maternity ward.
The prediction: Will be nominated, long odds to win
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