How Bad Will Flu Season Be This Year?

How well flu vaccination works can depend on how well the vaccines are matched with the circulating strains, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The composition of the vaccine is updated each year, based on what versions of the virus experts expect will be the most common. (This year’s vaccines will contain an updated influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 component.) Poland says if the same strains that circulated in the Southern Hemisphere are what we see in the U.S., we should have “good coverage.” The vaccines are similar, and a new CDC study found that the vaccine used in the Southern Hemisphere reduced influenza-associated hospitalizations by 52 percent during their flu season.

When should you get the flu shot?

The timing of things can also play a role in the outcome of our flu season. Activity spiked early last year and tapered off into winter. “The cases were very front-loaded in the year,” Ben-Aderet says. That’s a good reason not to push your flu shot off to later in the fall or winter, experts say, though late is still better than never. You also don’t want to get it too early and see your immunity wane before flu activity peaks.

Both Poland and Ben-Aderet say sometime in September or October is ideal for the vaccine. The CDC recommends the same time frame. “Remember that after you get the flu vaccine, it takes about two weeks before you develop the peak level of antibodies and are protected,” Poland says.

While you’re getting your flu shot, check to see if you’re due for a COVID-19 booster, since like with flu, older adults are among those at higher risk for a bad case of the disease. Vaccine manufacturers are updating the COVID shots so that they more closely match the strains of the virus that are currently circulating, and health officials expect them to be ready early in the fall. The CDC hasn’t made any official recommendations on who will need them or when, but those will likely be coming soon.

Adults 60 and older are also eligible for an RSV vaccine this fall, which is new to the lineup. Two versions were approved this summer and are expected in pharmacies and clinics by early fall. (Many already have them in stock.)

“Get a vaccine for these three diseases where you’re eligible,” Poland says. And “be cognizant of how these viruses spread,” he adds. According to CDC data, flu activity was “unusually low” during the height of the pandemic when people were washing their hands often, wearing masks around others and staying away from sick people, Poland says.