AARP Exclusive Poll: Trump Jumps Ahead of Biden for Arizona Voters Age 50-Plus

Overall, interest in voting in November is high. Ninety-four percent of Arizona voters ages 50-plus say they will definitely vote in the November election for president, U.S. Senate and Congress. Sixty-three percent of those older voters say they plan to cast an absentee or mail-in ballot, and 21 percent say they will vote in person on Election Day. Eleven percent say they would opt for early in-person voting.

“Older voters will definitely be the deciders in this election in Arizona,” says Dana Marie Kennedy, state director for AARP Arizona, noting that 55 percent of the state’s voters in 2020 were age 50-plus.

Concerns for older voters

Issues are often the driving force for these voters. Immigration and border security, along with economic issues, such as inflation and rising prices, are top-ranking concerns among voters 50-plus.

“Concern over border security is high everywhere, but nowhere near as high as it is in Arizona, and so it’s a big issue,” Ward says, noting that it’s largely a partisan issue.

Asked to identify their top concerns among a list of issues, 70 percent of Republican voters age 50-plus picked immigration and border security as their first or second highest concern, versus 7 percent of Democrat voters, Ward says. Overall, 41 percent of voters 50-plus ranked immigration and border security in their top two issues.

The economy remains a “top-tier” concern among those of all parties, Ward says. Fifty-eight percent of voters 50-plus say they worry about their financial situation.

“There’s really been a shock to voters’ pocketbooks over the last couple of years,” Liszt says. “And in a state like Arizona, they are not only feeling inflation at the pump and at the grocery store, but a lot of people are struggling with really high housing costs, which is also contributing to their economic worries.”

Twenty-eight percent of voters in the 50-plus age category say the country is headed in the “right direction,” and 68 percent say it’s heading in the “wrong direction.”

Other concerns for older voters include threats to democracy and abortion and reproductive issues. In November, Arizona’s ballot may include the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative, which would establish a state constitutional right to an abortion up to the point of fetal viability. Fifty-four percent of voters age 50-plus say they would vote for the initiative compared with 41 percent who say they’d vote against it.

Stances on Social Security and Medicare a factor

The issue of Social Security is likely to impact how those 50-plus vote, the poll shows. Fifty-four percent of older voters say Social Security is, or is expected to be, a major source of income, the poll found. Seventy-eight percent of voters age 50-plus say Social Security is “extremely or very important” to them when deciding who to support this November. 

“Especially, in Arizona, we have more and more people who are just really falling below poverty, and they really depend on that Social Security check,” Kennedy says.

Older voters identify Medicare (74 percent), policies to help seniors live independently at home as they age (67 percent), housing costs (65 percent), cost of utilities (65 percent) and cost of prescription drugs (62 percent) as “extremely or very important” in their candidate choice. 

Older Arizona voters are also concerned about caregiving, Liszt says. Twenty-three percent of voters 50-plus say they consider themselves to be a family caregiver for an older or ill adult or someone with a disability, the poll found. Of that 23 percent, a majority spend more than 11 hours a week on family caregiving, and 36 percent spend more than 20 hours a week on family caregiving, Liszt says.

“It’s directly an issue for those family caregivers, but providing support for family caregivers is also an issue more broadly because aging in place is a really high priority for Arizonans,” Liszt says.

Seventy-five percent of voters 50-plus say they’d be more likely to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate who advocates for support for family caregivers who help their loved ones live independently in their homes.

Since so many 50-plus voters plan to vote this November, Ward says, it’s important for candidates to address caregiving and Social Security.

“You need to be talking to the voters who you know are going to show up, and talk [about] the issues that are important to them,” Ward says.