Poll Shows Voters 50–64 Lean Republican, While Voters 65-Plus Lean Democrat

AARP commissioned a bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of likely voters from the 44 most competitive congressional districts in the 2024 election. The survey found 84% of voters ages 50 and over say they are extremely motivated to vote in this election, compared to 63% of voters under 50, making these older voters a critical voting bloc for candidates to consider while campaigning.

The survey also found the presidential race among these older voters is very close. Former President Donald Trump leads among voters 50-plus, with 45% saying they will vote for him compared to 41% for Biden. However, when disaggregated, President Biden leads by five points among voters 65 and over, while Trump leads by thirteen points among voters 50–64.

Other key takeaways from the poll for voters ages 50 and older include:

A majority (55%) say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income, and 80% say Social Security will be an extremely or very important issue in determining their vote this year.

• Economic concerns are highest among GOP voters 50-plus but are also high among Independents and Democrats (especially Social Security), with 62% of voters 50-plus saying they are worried about their personal financial situation.
• Black voters 50-plus cite personal economic issues as most pressing, ranking Social Security as among their top two issues heading into the election.

Twenty-four percent of voters overall and 30% of voters 50-plus consider themselves family caregivers, while 40% of older Hispanic voters and 37% of older Black voters say the same.

• Voters 50-plus, regardless of party affiliation, say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who provides support to family caregivers, which would allow seniors to live independently at home as they age (80%), or provide a tax credit to family caregivers to help cover caregiving costs (74%).

Methodology
The survey included interviews with 2,324 likely voters, with a core representative sample of 1,200 likely voters 18-plus and an oversample of 540 likely voters 50-plus to bring that group up to 1,200. There was also an oversample of 256 Hispanic likely voters 50-plus, and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters 50-plus. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (19%) and cellphone (39%), as well as SMS-to-web (42%) between June 3 and June 9, 2024. The sample was randomly drawn from the voter list. Interviews were offered in English and Spanish.

For more information, please contact Kate Bridges at kbridges@aarp.org. For media inquiries, contact External Relations at media@aarp.org.