AARP Poll: Presidential Race a Toss-Up in Battleground Georgia

In head-to-head matchup, Trump and Harris are tied

Elissa Chudwin,

AARP

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En español

Published August 08, 2024

AARP (Source: Getty Images (5))

Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are tied among likely voters in the presidential race for the battleground state of Georgia, according to an exclusive AARP poll released today. Forty-eight percent of likely voters favor each candidate in a head-to-head matchup.

When the lens shifts to voters 50-plus, former President Trump takes an eight-point lead, according to the poll. Fifty-three percent of older voters prefer Trump, while 45 percent favor Vice President Harris.

Among Black voters over 50, however, Harris takes a wide lead. Ninety percent of voters in this demographic prefer Harris, while only 6 percent favor Trump.

“Black voters make up such a big part of the Georgia electorate that you have to look at it through those two different lenses to really understand what’s going on,” says Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward, part of a bipartisan polling team that conducted the AARP-commissioned survey.

AARP (Source: Getty Images)

Fabrizio Ward and pollster Impact Research interviewed 1,254 likely Georgia voters from July 24 through July 31 about the presidential race and the issues motivating them to vote. Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee Monday after an online vote by the party’s convention delegates. President Joe Biden announced July 21 he was ending his reelection campaign, paving the way for Harris’ nomination. On Tuesday, she chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Trump’s vice presidential pick is U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio.

When pollsters asked voters who they would support in a race between Harris, Trump and several third-party candidates, Trump had a slight edge over Harris. Forty-six percent would cast their ballot for the former president and 44 percent would vote for Harris. Seven percent favor third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who have not yet gained access to the Georgia ballot. Three percent of likely voters remain undecided.

“Georgia voters ages 50 and older are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” says Vanessa J. Payne, state director of AARP Georgia. “With the race so close, candidates would do well to focus on the issues that matter to older voters, such as protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers.”

Georgia is considered a battleground state in the 2024 presidential election.. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by just 0.25 percent — 12,670 votes. The candidate who prevails in Georgia this November will receive 16 electoral votes toward the 270 needed to win the presidency.

“Georgia was incredibly close in 2020, and it is close now,” Ward says. “You look at this data, given the margin of error, this is a toss-up.”

Likely voters’ opinions of Trump and Harris are similar, the poll shows.

Overall for Trump, 47 percent of likely voters had a favorable opinion while 48 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers were just as close for Harris, with 46 percent having a favorable opinion and 47 percent with an unfavorable opinion.

Enthusiasm to vote high among voters 50+

Interest in voting in November is high, especially among older adults.

AARP (Source: Getty Images)

While 79 percent of all likely Georgia voters are “extremely motivated to vote,” that number increases to 88 percent among voters 50-plus.

“It’s important to note that older voters — those over 50 — are telling us that they’re much more motivated to vote than younger voters,” says Jeff Liszt, a partner with Impact Research.

The majority of older voters plan to cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, with 56 percent saying they’ll vote early and in person. Thirty-one percent plan to vote at the polls on Election Day, and 9 percent said they will vote absentee.

Most voters in Georgia are worried about the future of the country. Only 30 percent of voters 50-plus think the country is moving in the right direction, while 67 percent are concerned the nation is headed the wrong way. Among voters of all ages, 28 percent think the U.S. is going in the right direction, and 70 percent say it’s moving in the wrong direction.

Social Security, Medicare, aging in place are top concerns for older voters

Likely voters 50-plus ranked Social Security (83 percent), Medicare (75 percent) and policies to help older adults age safety at home (74 percent) as extremely important when deciding on a candidate. Also among their top concerns were the cost of utilities (73 percent), prescription drugs and housing (both 71 percent).

Finances are top of mind for older voters in Georgia, with 64 percent worried about their personal financial situation. Additionally, more than half of voters age 50 and older said Social Security is or will become a major source of income for their household. The majority of older adults surveyed said they would be more likely to support a candidate who ensures older workers receive their Social Security benefits.

AARP (Source: Getty Images)

Caregiving plays an important role

More than a third of older voters in Georgia said they provide care for an older or ill adult, or someone with a disability. And those voters spend a substantial amount of time caring for a family member. Thirty-six percent said they spend 21 or more hours doing so weekly, while 17 percent spend 11 to 20 hours per week caregiving.

And the poll found 90 percent of caregivers 50-plus are “extremely motivated” to vote.

“[Caregivers] are telling us that they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who focuses on this issue of family caregiving, and right now, these are voters who are basically a toss-up in the presidential contest,” Liszt says. “So I think that family caregiving is an issue that’s really important for candidates to talk about.”

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Elissa Chudwin is a contributing writer who covers federal and state policy. She previously worked as a digital producer for The Press Democrat in Santa Rosa, California, and an editor for Advocate magazines in Dallas, Texas.