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Exclusive AARP Poll: Older Women Show Major Shift Toward Harris Over Trump

In presidential race, this wild card group of voters is worried about the economy and retirement

By

Susan Milligan,

 
AARP
Comments
Published September 20, 2024
women stand in front of a purple background
AARP (Source: Getty Images (12))

Women voters 50-plus support Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris over Republican former President Donald Trump by a 12-percentage-point margin, largely because of how these voters rate the candidates on pocketbook and retirement issues, an exclusive AARP poll released Friday found.

Older women are poised to play a pivotal role in the outcome of November’s presidential election, putting their support behind the candidate they trust more to handle rising costs and protect Social Security and Medicare, according to the AARP “She’s the Difference” poll.

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Fifty-four percent of older women support Harris, compared with 42 percent for Trump. Among voters 18 and older, 49 percent support Harris compared with 46 percent for Trump, according to the poll, which focuses on the opinions of women voters 50-plus.

The data shows a shift toward the Democratic candidate in recent months. A survey in January showed that women 50-plus supported Democratic President Joe Biden over Trump by just 3 percentage points — a margin that has widened an additional 9 points in this recent poll. In August, Harris became the Democratic nominee after Biden announced he was ending his reelection campaign. 

“Older women are … a big group that is very motivated to vote,” says Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer. “Our polling over the years has shown them to be a key swing voting bloc.”

The AARP “She’s the Difference” poll surveyed 2,045 voters nationwide, including 1,353 women 50-plus, and was conducted by the bipartisan team of Republican strategist Kristen Soltis Anderson and Democratic consultant Margie Omero. The poll took place from Aug. 27–Sept. 2, after the political conventions but before the presidential debate in Philadelphia.

fifty four percent of older women say they would vote for kamala harris. in congress, fifty one percent said they support democrats.
AARP (Source: Getty Images (2))

The poll also found that women 50-plus favor Democrats running for Congress — though more narrowly — with 51 percent saying they would vote for a Democratic contender and 42 percent opting for a Republican. Both chambers of Congress are closely divided, and one or both could flip to control by the other party.

“It really validates our view that this is a key swing group,” Soltis Anderson says.

Rising costs a concern

This year, concerns over rising costs and long-term financial security play a role in whom women support in the election. On topics such as the cost of prescription medication and housing, Social Security and Medicare, female voters 50-plus say they trust Harris to do a better job addressing those issues.

“The race is very different now than it was when it was Donald Trump versus Joe Biden,” Soltis Anderson says. “While Donald Trump had been pretty far in the lead on issues around cost of living and the economy, Harris has really closed the gap on some of these issues.”

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Overwhelmingly, personal finances and retirement-related matters are on the minds of women over 50, who have a grim view of the economic climate and worry about their ability to retire — and stay retired.

Older female voters say things are “getting worse” when it comes to wages and income; the availability of good jobs; the opportunity to get ahead; economic inequality; economic security for older adults; and the costs of medical care, prescription medicine, gas, groceries and housing.

Barely more than a third of women 50-plus women — 35 percent — say the economy is working well for them personally, and 62 percent say it isn’t. Forty-one percent of older women polled say they are confident they will be financially better off a year from now, while 49 percent say they are not confident that will be the case.

Sixty two percent of women say the economy is not working well for them
AARP (Source: Getty Images (2))

Asked about day-to-day expenses, such as the phone bill or groceries, large majorities say they can usually or easily afford to pay them. Still, women over 50 expressed anxiety about the economy and about what their futures hold.

Though a solid majority (57 percent) say they could cover a $500 emergency expense, 56 percent could not cover three months’ expenses if they lost their income sources.

The majority of older women voters say policymakers don’t understand their financial challenges: 80 percent say elected officials are fair or poor at grasping those difficulties.

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fifty nine percent of working women over fifty are concerned about retirement
AARP (Source: Getty Images (3))

Retirement roadblocks ahead? 

The older women polled expressed worries about the future. Most women voters 50-plus say they aren’t confident they could afford to retire when they want to. Only 33 percent say they are confident they could, compared with 59 percent who are not confident. That differs from the overall group polled: 41 percent are confident they could retire when they want to, while 54 percent say they are not confident.

Older women voters say protecting Social Security from cuts and lowering food costs would help them “a lot” personally. More than 4 in 10 of those working say they struggle to save for retirement or can’t save for retirement at all. Forty-four percent of those voters say they have neither a retirement savings account nor a pension.

“People are feeling pressure,” Omero says, noting that high inflation and prices have taken a toll. “As those things have eased, people have not really felt like they’ve been able to catch their breath. People still really do feel like it’s hard to make ends meet.”

When it comes to issues overall, female voters 50-plus ranked cost of living (46 percent), immigration (30 percent), threats to democracy (20 percent), and Social Security and Medicare (17 percent) as their top concerns.

Women identified cost of living, immigration and threats to democracy as important issues
AARP (Source: Getty Images (3))

Abortion and reproductive rights ranked fifth (15 percent), but Omero and Soltis Anderson say the issue is likely to influence female voters over 50.

“It is something that weighs on voters’ minds, even if it’s not something that they think will directly affect them personally,” Soltis Anderson says. “We’ve heard women talk about how might this affect my daughter or my granddaughter.”

Women are a majority of voters nationally and are likely to play a particularly important role in the election this year. In 2020, exit polls found that women were 52 percent of the voting electorate nationally, and they were more dominant in swing states such as Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

The dramatic swing in support toward Harris among women voters 50-plus validates the idea that these voters can be won over if candidates pay attention to issues that concern them, Soltis Anderson says: “If we ever had questions of, is this group up for grabs — that has been confirmed by what we’ve seen.”

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