What’s Cheaper and What Isn’t as Inflation Ebbs

The consumer price index (CPI), the government’s main gauge of inflation, rose 4.9 percent over the 12 months ended in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It was the slowest annual rise in two years.

The year-over-year inflation rate has been falling since its near-term peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022, giving some economists hope that the trend will persuade the Federal Reserve to pause its campaign of raising interest rates to combat rising prices. The Fed has increased rates 10 times since March 2022, to a current range of 5 percent to 5.25 percent, in hopes of slowing the economy and inflation.

“The below 5 percent headline CPI number is a sigh of relief to a market on edge,” says Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, co-head of portfolio management for Multi-Asset Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “The Fed has an excuse now not to hike.”

Nevertheless, inflation continues to stalk the economic landscape. The three broad categories that rose the most over the past 12 months were transportation services, electricity and food at home.

Transportation services were up 11 percent, thanks in part to a 20.2 percent jump in the cost of motor vehicle repair and a 15.5 percent increase in auto insurance premiums.

Electricity prices rose 8.4 percent. This should ease as the price of natural gas, used by many companies to generate electricity, falls further. Natural gas prices fell 4.9 percent the past 12 months.

Food-at-home costs rose 7.7 percent, driven mainly by steep increases in flour, up 17.8 percent, and eggs, up 21.4 percent. Meats, poultry and fish, however, rose a modest 2.8 percent, while the price of bacon fell 8.9 percent.

Some good news: Gasoline prices fell 12.2 percent the past 12 months. According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of regular gas was $3.53, down from $4.37 a year earlier. In Mississippi, the price of gas fell below $3, to $2.99 a gallon. Hawaii has the most expensive gas, at $4.78 a gallon.