AARP Poll: Voters in Battleground Congressional Districts Split Between Biden, Trump for President

Overall, interest in voting in November is high. Eighty-four percent of voters ages 50-plus say they are extremely motivated to vote in the election for president, U.S. Senate and Congress, compared with 63 percent of voters under 50.

Because they turn out in high numbers, older voters are once again likely to tip the scales in close races across the country, as they did during the midterm elections, says Khelan Bhatia, AARP’s senior campaign manager for voter engagement. 

Asked whether they would be more likely to vote for a Republican or Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, voters of all ages evenly split between the parties, at 45 percent, with 10 percent saying they are undecided.

“The data we have seen in this [2024] congressional district poll shows how unbelievably close the races are,” Bhatia says. “Only a few districts in any direction will decide who controls the House of Representatives.”

Voters 50 and older are slightly more likely to support a Republican, at 48 percent versus 44 percent who say they are more likely to vote for a Democrat. Broken down by age group, voters 50-64 give Republicans the edge, favoring the GOP by a 13-point margin, while voters 65 and older choose the Democrat by a 5-point margin.

AARP (Source: Getty Images)

“There are a lot of voters who are splitting their tickets,” meaning they intend to vote for different parties for presidential and downballot races, a practice that has become rare in recent elections, says Jeff Liszt, a Democratic pollster with Impact Research. That means “a lot of voters are up for grabs and a lot of races are competitive because of it,” Liszt says.

Concerns for older voters in 2024 elections

Issues are often the driving force for these voters. Immigration and border security, along with economic issues, such as inflation and rising prices, are top-ranking concerns among voters 50-plus.

Asked to identify their top concern among a list of issues, more than half (54 percent) of those 50-plus chose a personal economic issue such as inflation, jobs or Social Security. Sixty-three percent of voters 50-plus say they worry about their financial situation, according to the poll.

Although concerns over immigration and abortion are largely partisan, “economic issues bridge everybody,” says Bob Ward of the Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward. “It is the number one issue cluster among Republicans, independents and Democrats.”

The poll found most older voters are not satisfied with the country’s trajectory. Twenty-nine percent of voters in the 50-plus age category say the country is headed in the “right direction,” and 67 percent say it’s heading in the “wrong direction.”

Candidates looking to win over older voters would be wise to pay attention to pocketbook issues such as protecting Social Security, Liszt, the Democratic pollster, says. Eighty percent of older voters in battleground congressional districts say it will be an extremely or very important issue in determining their vote this year.

“Fifty-five percent of voters over 50 say Social Security will be a major source of their income in retirement, and 85 percent say it will be at least a partial source of income,” Liszt says. “It’s not an abstract issue. It’s a day-to-day critical issue for them.”

AARP (Source: Getty Images)

Voters identify Medicare (73 percent), policies to help seniors live independently at home as they age (67 percent), the cost of utilities (66 percent), the cost of prescription drugs (66 percent) and the cost of housing (63 percent) as “extremely or very important” in their candidate choice.

Older voters in these districts are also concerned about caregiving. Thirty percent of voters 50-plus say they consider themselves to be a family caregiver for an older or ill adult or someone with a disability, the poll found. Of that 30 percent, nearly half spend more than 10 hours a week on family caregiving, and 31 percent spend more than 21 hours a week.

Eighty percent of voters 50-plus say they’d be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who advocates for support for family caregivers who help their loved ones live independently in their homes. And 74 percent support a tax credit for unpaid family caregivers.

“Those numbers are huge, whether you’re a Republican, independent or Democrat,” Ward, the Republican pollster, says. “Campaigns need to engage this issue, and they will find, I think, that voters are going to be really responsive to it.”