AARP Poll: Presidential Candidates Tied Among Michigan Voters

Michigan, with 15 Electoral College votes and a highly competitive U.S. Senate race, could be a deciding factor in who becomes president and influence the balance of power in the Senate. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by just 2.8 percentage points; Trump won it in 2016 by just three-tenths of a percentage point.

The bipartisan polling team also asked voters their opinions of each candidate. Both Trump and Harris have similar — and slightly unfavorable — images among Michigan voters. Forty-eight percent of voters view Trump positively, and 47 percent have a favorable view of Harris. 

AARP

Down-ticket races are also extremely close, according to the AARP poll. In the open race for a U.S. Senate seat, Democrat Elissa Slotkin, with 49 percent of voters’ support, leads GOP rival Mike Rogers, who has 46 percent. Among voters 50-plus, Slotkin has support from 48 percent of likely voters compared to 46 percent for Rogers.

When it comes to the state House of Representatives, voters are nearly split: 48 percent said they would vote for Democrats, and 46 percent said they would cast a ballot for Republicans. Democrats have just a two-seat majority in the 110-member chamber now.

Voters 50-plus more likely to turn out

Voters 50 and older are poised to play a deciding role in how Michigan swings in November. Older voters represent a significant majority of Michigan voters and are more likely to cast a ballot: 9 out of 10 likely voters in that age cohort say they are very motivated to vote in this year’s elections, compared with 85 percent among voters 18 and older.

Older voters say they plan to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot (46 percent), in person on Election Day (38 percent), and early in person (13 percent).

Strong majorities — 64 percent of likely Michigan voters and 58 percent of voters 50-plus — say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Those numbers present a particular challenge for Harris, Ward said.

AARP

“These voters are in a funk,” Ward says. “Even though Harris has really changed the 2024 campaign as the new nominee of the Democratic party, there are a lot of headwinds for the administration and for Democrats.”

Voters 50 and older are a majority nationwide (they made up 52 percent of the vote nationally in the 2020 presidential election), but they have amplified power in the Wolverine State. In 2020, older voters made up 59 percent of the vote in Michigan, and in the 2022 midterms they comprised 62 percent of the vote.

Social Security, Medicare top older voters’ lists

The candidates would be well-served to pay attention to issues facing voters 50-plus, says Paula D. Cunningham, state director of AARP Michigan.

“The rising cost of living, health care and the protection of Social Security and Medicare are the issues that will drive their decisions when casting their ballots in this election,” Cunningham says. “They will undoubtedly be the deciding factor in this year’s election and any candidate hoping to earn their support must address these key issues.”

From a list of issues important to older adults, voters 50-plus rank Social Security (82 percent) and Medicare (73 percent) as extremely or very important when deciding on a candidate, the poll shows. Ninety-four percent of older voters say they are more likely to support a candidate who makes sure workers receive the Social Security they earned, and 80 percent say they’re more likely to support a candidate who protects Social Security from cuts.

Also among older voters’ top concerns are policies to help older adults age independently at home (68 percent), cost of utilities (66 percent) and prescription drug costs (65 percent).

AARP

On other issues that would personally be most important to them when casting ballots, older voters list immigration and border security (33 percent), inflation and rising prices (24 percent), the economy and jobs (24 percent), threats to democracy (23 percent) and abortion and reproductive issues.

Caregiving is also a concern for Michiganders, a quarter of whom (and 31 percent of those over 50) describe themselves as family caregivers. About a third, 31 percent of all caregivers and 34 percent of likely voters over 50, said they spend 21 hours or more per week on unpaid care for a loved one.

Overwhelming majorities — 70 percent of state voters overall and 73 percent of those over 50 — told pollsters they are more likely to support a candidate who favored providing a tax credit for unpaid family caregivers to cover caregiving costs. Seventy-two percent of all voters and of voters 50-plus say they’d be more likely to support a candidate who advocates for paid leave for caregivers.

With the race exceedingly close, both Trump and Harris should pay attention to those issues, the pollsters say.

“It’s important for candidates to focus on what’s important to older voters, because they’re going to be there,” Ward says.