AARP Poll: Candidates in Close Race for Pivotal Maryland U.S. Senate Seat ​

Hogan is outperforming fellow Republican Trump in the Maryland polls. Hogan and Trump pull the same 83 percent of the vote among Republicans, but Hogan is running more than 40 net points ahead of Trump among independents and Democrats, the survey found. 

Harris, who has Black and Indian ancestry, has 89 percent of Black voters age 50-plus supporting her, compared with 8 percent in this demographic favoring Trump, according to poll results. Harris formally accepted the Democratic nomination Aug. 22 during the party’s convention. President Joe Biden announced July 21 that he wouldn’t seek reelection and endorsed Harris as his replacement. 

Sixty-one percent of Maryland voters reported a favorable opinion of Harris versus 33 percent unfavorable. For Trump, 30 percent of all voters have a favorable opinion of him, compared with 65 percent unfavorable, the poll showed. Among Maryland voters 50-plus, 60 percent had a favorable opinion of Harris, compared with 35 percent unfavorable. Among those older voters, 33 percent reported a favorable opinion of Trump, versus 63 percent unfavorable opinion. 

Pollsters noted a striking difference between the top of the ballot, with Harris clearly leading in Maryland, and the down ballot, with the Senate race too close to call. Ward described the number of voters who plan to split their vote and support the Democratic Harris and Republican Hogan as “eye-popping.”

“Seventeen percent of the voters in Maryland are voting Hogan-Harris,” Ward said, noting it’s “surprising to see him getting the vote of more than one-in-four Democrats.” 

Approximately 55 percent of Maryland’s registered voters are Democrats or lean Democratic, and 31 percent are Republican or lean Republican, according to the Pew Research Center. In 2020, Biden won in Maryland, garnering 65 percent of the vote compared with 32 percent for Trump. Whoever wins in Maryland in November will get 10 electoral votes toward the 270 needed to win the presidential race. 

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Voters 50+ more likely to turn out

Interest in voting in November is high in Maryland. Eighty-seven percent of voters 50-plus report being “extremely motivated to vote,” compared with 79 percent among voters of all ages. 

Forty-five percent of older Maryland voters plan to vote in person at the polls on Election Day, while 27 percent plan to vote via absentee or mail-in ballot. Another 24 percent of voters 50-plus plan to vote early in person. 

“Marylanders over age 50 are our largest voting bloc,” said Hank Greenberg, state director for AARP Maryland. Greenberg noted that these older voters are “engaged and they are highly motivated, not just for their future but for their family’s future.”

When asked about the country’s current trajectory, 42 percent of voters 50-plus said it is headed in the right direction, compared with 53 percent who say it is headed in the wrong direction. Among voters of all ages, 37 percent say it is headed in the right direction, and 58 percent believe it is going in the wrong direction.

Social Security, Medicare, finances among older voters’ top concerns

Older Maryland voters ranked Social Security (79 percent), Medicare (72 percent), policies to help seniors live independently at home as they age (72 percent), cost of prescription drugs (68 percent), cost of utilities (66 percent) and cost of housing (60 percent) as extremely or very important factors to them as they decide which candidates to support in November. 

“Economic issues dominate older voters’ minds in Maryland,” Ward said. 

Fifty-nine percent of older Maryland voters report being worried about their personal financial situation, compared with 40 percent who are not worried. Fifty-two percent of older voters reported that Social Security is or will be a major source of income for their household. 

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Issues related to personal economic status remain key concerns for voters in deciding their votes. When asked what issues would be most important personally in deciding their votes in this election, older adults listed the economy and jobs (28 percent); inflation and rising prices (24 percent); threats to democracy (24 percent) and immigration and border security (24 percent) as top factors. 

Those concerns about finances translate to how voters 50-plus cast their ballots. Eighty-six percent of older voters would support congressional candidates who support Medicare negotiating with drug companies for lower prices, the survey showed. 

Ninety-two percent of older voters say they are more likely to support candidates who will make sure workers get the Social Security benefits they earned, and 77 percent report they would be more likely to support candidates who protect Social Security from cuts. 

“The survey results very much reflect what we are hearing from our members,” Greenberg said. “They are concerned about the economy, their personal financial security and other bread and butter issues.”

Caregiving plays an election role

Thirty-one percent of older adults participating in the poll reported being a caregiver to an older or ill adult or someone with a disability. Of those, 30 percent reported dedicating 21 hours or more to caregiving. 

Older voters support assistance for caregivers. Of those surveyed, 76 percent said they would be more likely to back a candidate who advocates for supporting caregivers helping their loved ones live independently in their own homes. Seventy-two percent are more likely to back candidates who advocate for tax credits for unpaid family caregivers. And 74 percent would be more likely to vote for candidates advocating for paid leave for caregivers. 

The survey also showed that 81 percent of older voters support Maryland funding a grant program to help offset out-of-pocket costs incurred by unpaid caregivers. 

The older voter has an outsize impact at the polls in Maryland, Greenberg said, so issues like caregiving, Social Security and Medicare are extremely important. “If a candidate wants to win,” he said, “they need to pay attention to these issues and be prepared to address them on the campaign trail.”