AARP Poll: Older Voters Turned the Tide in Pivotal U.S. House Races

Older voters boosted Republicans

Voters were similarly closely divided when it came to the presidential race. Among those polled in the 43 battleground congressional districts, 48 percent said they voted for Republican President-elect Donald Trump, and 46 percent said they cast their ballot for the Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris. Voters 50-plus were similarly divided, with 49 percent voting for Trump and 47 percent for Harris.

Older voters across the country put their power behind Trump, according to exit polls, but they weren’t a fully united bloc. Exit polls showed that 56 percent of voters ages 50 to 64 backed Trump and 43 percent supported Harris, but the candidates were tied for support among voters 65 and older.

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The AARP postelection poll reveals an enormous gender gap between the political parties. Democratic candidates bested their GOP opponents by 20 percentage points among women — and 13 percentage points among women 50-plus — largely because of abortion and reproductive issues, Liszt says. He noted that 31 percent of women 50-plus said abortion was one of the top two issues determining their votes.

Men, meanwhile, favored Republican candidates by 21 percentage points, in all age groups including among those 50-plus, Liszt says. Men were more likely to name immigration and border security as top issues, he says.

The postelection survey syncs with polling AARP did this summer. In June, AARP found Trump had a narrow lead among voters 50-plus in congressional battleground districts, with 48 percent backing Trump and 45 percent favoring then-nominee President Joe Biden. That suggests older voters were largely set in their choice months before the election. The November poll, in fact, found that just 7 percent of both Trump and Harris voters considered voting for the other candidate.

Economic issues at the forefront

Pocketbook issues— including around retirement security —were top of mind for all voters, including older voters. Among a list of important issues, voters 50-plus rated the economy and jobs (82 percent), inflation and rising prices (77 percent), the cost of prescription drugs (64 percent) and the cost of housing (63 percent) as among top concerns when voting for a member of Congress.

Further, 47 percent of voters 50-plus said they were “worse off now” than they were four years ago, typically a warning sign for the party in power. Thirty percent of older voters said they were better off now.

Issues important to older adults also ranked high: Voters 50-plus said Social Security (80), health care (79 percent), Medicare (72 percent) and policies to support aging at home (69 percent) were all top issues. 

When asked which two issues were personally most important to them when deciding their vote for Congress, older voters pinpointed immigration and border security (32 percent), the economy and jobs (26 percent), threats to democracy (26 percent), inflation and rising prices (23 percent) and abortion and reproductive issues (22 percent).

“Older voters showed up in big numbers and likely made the difference in close congressional races,” says Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer. “While immigration and the economy were the top two single issues for voters 50-plus, personal financial security was very top of mind.”

Older voters saw Democrats as more equipped to handle issues important to Americans 50-plus, such as Social Security, Medicare, the cost of prescription drugs and the ability to age independently at home. But Democrats’ edge over the GOP was relatively small on those questions, a sea change from polling 10 to 15 years ago, when Democrats had a bigger advantage, Ward says.

“Those issues really matter a lot to [older adults], and there isn’t one party or another that they trust more,” Ward says. “It’s a real area of opportunity for both sides, and I don’t think it’s an area that either side really seized in this election.”

Meanwhile, those polled said Republicans were better equipped to handle fundamental pocketbook issues. Among older voters, 52 percent said they trusted the GOP to tackle inflation and rising prices, while 35 percent said Democrats would do a better job. Candidates got similar numbers on the economy and jobs, with 52 percent of voters 50-plus voters in battleground districts trusting Republicans to tackle those issues and 36 percent favoring Democratic candidates.

Caregiving, too, is a big issue for voters, Liszt says, with 31 percent of voters 50-plus characterizing themselves as family caregivers. “That’s a huge chunk of the electorate,” he says, noting that 41 percent of caregivers told pollsters they spend 21 hours or more per week tending to aging or ailing loved ones.

“It’s a very common issue, and common issues like that can take on the life of their own when it comes to policymaking,” Ward says. This “was really the first year where both parties were starting to engage in this issue. I think as we look at elections going forward, this is only going to be a bigger part of our politics.”